- Prescribing Advice for GPs - https://www.prescriber.org.uk -

One third obese by 2012

According to projections made in a paper published in the Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health, about a third of all adults will be obese by 2012 if historical trends continue. This information has been reported in the general media (BBC).

The study examined and extrapolated prevalence trends from 1993 to 2004. The prevalence of obesity was noted to increase over this time period from 13.6% to 24.0% among men and from 16.9% to 24.4% among women. Three projection models were applied to this data and estimated that obesity prevalence could be 32.1% (95%CI: 30.4; 34.8) in men and 31.0% (95%CI: 29.0; 33.1) in women by 2012.

The impact of recent strategies including the child measuring scheme and Change4Life are not included in these projections however it is estimated that 9,000 adults die early every year because of obesity-related illness.

Action: Clinicians should continue to support anti-obesity strategies by providing diet and lifestyle advice and through appropriate use of anti-obesity drugs.